STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Israel considers its options after mostly fending off an attack from Iran. Two American warships supported the Israel Defense Forces in intercepting hundreds of missiles. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called it a significant escalation.
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JAKE SULLIVAN: We are now going to look at what the appropriate next steps are to secure, first and foremost, American interests, and then to promote stability to the maximum extent possible as we go forward.
INSKEEP: Iran struck after Israel repeatedly pounded its ally and proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. There's a lot to discuss here, so we brought in Chuck Freilich, who is a former Israeli deputy national security adviser, now at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. He joins us from New York. Welcome, sir.
CHUCK FREILICH: Good morning.
INSKEEP: So as this attack unfolded yesterday, the headlines initially were horrifying - hundreds of missiles flying at Israel. And then the defenses largely fended it off, to the extent that one of my colleagues yesterday said, is that all they got? Seems to have been an ineffective attack. Why do you think Iran would launch something that makes them seem almost impotent?
FREILICH: Well, I don't think that was the intention. I think they thought they were doing something very effective. And it was really a massive barrage of almost 200 ballistic missiles aimed at strategic sites throughout Israel air bases, and even, apparently, the nuclear reactor in Dimona.
INSKEEP: And so do you think that that is the worst that Iran can do?
FREILICH: No. They can probably do considerably more, but it's the second attack. There was one in April, and again, this one, where the U.S.-led coalition - U.S.-Israeli forces, France, Britain, Jordan and, apparently, other Arab countries - all shared in the defense and defeated the attack. So can they do more? Yes. How effective it'll be, we'll see.
INSKEEP: Israel has said it will respond. What do you see as Israel's realistic options here?
FREILICH: Well, I don't know what the response will be. I think it has to be a significant one. As I said, this is the second time, and it's unacceptable. But whatever major response there is, if it's, for example, against the Iranian oil infrastructure, which is their primary source of income and their primary weakness, or even if there's a decision to take advantage of the situation to try and hit the nuclear sites - whatever it is, I think it has to be coordinated closely with the United States.
INSKEEP: Are Israel's interests and American interests identical here?
FREILICH: Well, they're never identical. The United States is a global superpower. Israel is a small regional player. But I think there's a shared interest here. The end of the year since the war began October 7 last year, Israel turned the tide and has Iran's axis of evil on the run. So Hamas has been defeated militarily - not politically, but militarily.
INSKEEP: Right.
FREILICH: Hezbollah is being dismantled, it seems, just with remarkable effectiveness. And now there's an opportunity to hit Iran, which is the - known as the head of the snake - to hit them hard.
INSKEEP: Well, now, that's an interesting point. Israel has taken the occasion of Hezbollah's attacks on Israel to do far more damage to Hezbollah than Hezbollah has managed to make in the other direction. You're saying this is now potentially an opportunity for Israelis, if they can manage it without a catastrophic escalation. We've heard threats coming out of Iran that if their oil facilities are hit, for example, they would have the ability to hit oil facilities across the Middle East, maybe facilities that are not quite so well-defended. What are the risks here as the Israelis consider their next step?
FREILICH: There are always risks in life, and you have to manage risk in a responsible way. They're talking a very big game, and sometimes the talk is real, but a lot of it so far has proven to be just talk. We expected a far, far greater response by Hezbollah than what we've seen over the last two weeks, and to a certain extent, there seems to be crumbling before our eyes. We saw the limits to Iran's response now. I think if they expand the war in the way that you're suggesting, then they find themselves in a real conflict with the United States, and I think that's probably the last thing that they want to do. I think the greater danger is that they'll up their game against Israel, and that will require a further joint response. It doesn't necessarily have to become a much wider war than that.
INSKEEP: Just very briefly - Israel, then, again, has rolled the dice again and again and said, we're going to take one more step. We're going to take one more step and gamble that it's not going to blow back on us. And they've been successful so far. You think they could possibly take one additional step against their enemies.
FREILICH: Yes. I think - look, it's not gambling. It's not rolling the dice. These are all well-considered actions. Nothing is just done off the cuff. There are deep consultations in Israel, the best analysis that Israel has, and then deep consultations with the U.S.
INSKEEP: Chuck Freilich, former deputy national security adviser for Israel. Thanks so much.
FREILICH: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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