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Duval County's Flood Risk Rising, Says Group Rating Dangers House By House

Boaters shuttle resdients down flooded Southampton Rd. after Hurricane Irma in 2017.

About 48,000 properties in Jacksonville will face substantial flood risks in a changing climate during the next 30 years, a flood-studying nonprofit concluded in research released this week.

WJCT News partner The Florida Times-Union reports that number represents about 19,000 more addresses in 2050 than today — a 66 percent increase — according to researchers working with the New York-based First Street Foundation.

That’s a sharper rate of increase than any city in America except New Orleans, said a national risk assessment from the group.

The measurement reflects the number of addresses that a flooding model used by the nonprofit lists as having at least a 1 percent chance each year of being flooded.

Traditional flood-zone maps follow a similar standard, but First Street has done something new and difficult by creating a searchable website that assigns 1-to-10 scores of flood risks to addresses across the country and forecasts how risks will change over time.

“You own a home for more than a year,” First Street Executive Director Matthew Eby told reporters recently, pointing out limits of the current mapping system. “It’s not looking into the future over time for a cumulative risk, nor is it understanding how that risk accumulates and changes over time.”

The website for checking risks by address,, went live Monday.

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