Active and Wet Pattern in the Long Range Forecast Over Florida

Jun 28, 2021

An active wave pattern in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the approach of an unusually strong front for this time of year could coalesce to produce several days of soggy weather across portions of the Sunshine State through the upcoming holiday weekend and beyond.

Rain chances will first be on the rise across the western half of the peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture is drawn back across the state in the wake of a recent pocket of dry air aloft. The flow becomes more southerly by the end of the week, likely yielding higher rain chances and stronger storms across the rest of Florida. This could be capped off by even more rain this weekend across the northern half of Florida from the approach of a slow-moving front, while portion of South Florida may be skirted by tropical moisture moving north out of the Caribbean.

Multiple tropical waves have been observed moving across the Atlantic Ocean in recent days, with one in particular showing signs of tropical development. The wave identified as Invest 95 (for sake of modeling) was located approximately 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Monday evening and moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a "medium chance" of becoming a tropical depression or storm, stating in their recent tropical outlooks that development would be slow to occur by the end of the week or this weekend as the system moves into the northern Caribbean.

At this time, a significant threat to Florida from a purely tropical system appears unlikely in the next five to seven days. The interactions of the aforementioned front and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent that from occurring. However, the tendency for repeating and long-lived episodes of heavy rain in some areas could make flooding a growing concern by early next week, although it's too soon to determine the magnitude and location of such potential.

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