UNF Poll: Trump Catching Up, But Democratic Voting Trend Could Work In Clinton's Favor

Oct 27, 2016

Credit Gage Skidmore / State Department

Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead in a new poll of Florida’s likely voters by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida.

Clinton leads with 43 percent in a four-way contest with Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Trump trails Clinton 39 to 43 percent, which is within the nearly 3.5 percent margin of error. Johnson and Stein trail with 6 percent and 3 percent in the poll. Another 9 percent of voters surveyed were still undecided.

When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, at 44 percent.

In a news release, UNF pollster Mike Binder says the head-to-head results have “tightened considerably” since a similar poll in early October.

“However, Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day,” Binder said, “Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida.”

The poll also shows incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Marco Rubio with a lead over Democrat Patrick Murphy: 49 to 43 percent. 

And, the poll shows, the majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote “yes” on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana.

“This is down 4 percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2,” Binder said.

Contact Jessica Palombo at 904-358-6315, jpalombo@wjct.org or on Twitter at @JessicaPubRadio.