National Hurricane Center

FPREN

The flip-flopping continues. The question is, will the shift noted Monday in nearly all reliable forecast models stick?  The National Hurricane Center shifted their forecast track of Major Hurricane Matthew considerably, as of their 5 p.m. advisory Monday afternoon.

FPREN

Heading into the weekend, Danny was a major hurricane. By Monday morning, it was barely a tropical storm as it approached the Leeward Islands. 

As expected, wind shear and dry air had taken its toll on the first and only hurricane of the season so far. Some minor fluctuations in intensity may occur Monday and Tuesday, but Danny is forecast to dissipate by midweek in the northern Caribbean. Beneficial rains and gusty winds will be the only byproduct of Danny for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in the coming days.

Jeff Huffman

The 2014 Hurricane Season is just two weeks away, and officials continue to remind Floridians to prepare the same no matter the forecast.

Courtesy NOAA

The southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean have already birthed several tropical systems this season, and we may have have another one by Friday. Invest 95L, an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, has a “high chance” (per the National Hurricane Center) of becoming a depression or tropical storm by Friday when it moves out over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Unlike its predecessors, though, this potential storm could be pulled further north or northeast and potentially impact parts of the United States.

Good news to report on the tropics today, especially as it relates to Florida. Tropical Storm Erin was downgraded to a depression Friday morning, and the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 92L, is unlikely to impact the Sunshine State directly. It remains to be seen if Erin can survive the long haul across the cooler waters of the central Atlantic. However, the very warm water of the western Gulf of Mexico may still fuel tropical storm formation there over the weekend.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN

National Hurricane Center

Hurricane forecasts have become quite accurate in recent years. Not only can meteorologists predict where a storm is likely to make landfall, they also have a good idea about the areas that will be impacted by a storm surge. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to explain the storm surge danger in a way people easily understood. 

Happily, that’s about to change. 

NOAA

The first named tropical system has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center says an air force reconnaissance plane was able to identify a well-defined circulation.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Boca Grande to the Ochlockonee River on Florida's west coast. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Flagler Beach to Surf City, North Carolina. 

A flood watch is in effect for the entire area until Friday afternoon.