The season's first hurricane in the Atlantic could be approaching the Leeward Islands by early next week, but its fate thereafter is very much uncertain. Tropical Depression Four formed 1,600 miles east of the Windward Islands Tuesday morning and was moving west at 13 mph into the Central Atlantic. Surface and upper-level conditions are favorable for "slow but steady strengthening", so said the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am advisory. The official forecast is for TD Four to become Hurricane Danny by Friday or Saturday as it continues on its westward track toward the Leeward Islands.Confidence in the general track and speed of Tropical Depression Four is rather high, but as with most tropical systems, the intensity forecast is very uncertain. Dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere from dust storms moving off the west coast of Africa is forecast to potentially inhibit further strengthening in three to five days. And even if the storm is able to overcome this, the atmospheric environment ahead of it in the eastern Caribbean and western Atlantic is forecast to become even more unfavorable for continued development or sustainability. The current El Niño pattern typically makes it very difficult for tropical cyclones to survive in these areas. However, smaller scale weather features could also align themselves in a more favorable way when the storm nears.
For that reason, Tropical Depression Four certainly deserves our attention and should be watched closely, but at the present time is no immediate threat to the United States.
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