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Tropical disturbance in Gulf has stronger chance of developing

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off today with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that will continue to affect Florida into the weekend.

The area of low pressure is becoming better organized and had a 70% chance of tropical formation as of Thursday afternoon. Latest data indicates there may be just enough time and ingredients for the system to briefly turn into a depression by Friday, before conditions become unfavorable for further development. For now, latest models are keeping the disturbance offshore in the open waters until it dissipates this weekend.

Parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula have been hit with rounds of flooding rains the past several days, and that system will continue to push waves of heavy showers over the same areas through Saturday. In addition to a flooding threat, Florida’s Gulf Coast along the Peninsula will likely experience gusty winds, rough surf and an increased risk for high rip currents.

If necessary, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. It would be named Arlene if development and organization continues.

With hurricane season officially underway, please continue preparing and always be ready to take action when necessary. Here are some great safety and prep resources:

The Florida Storms app is a one-stop shop for all of your hurricane preparation and safety needs along with helping you track everything going on in the tropics.

Copyright 2023 Storm Center. To see more, visit Storm Center.

Jeff George