FOSHAN, China — You might think a businessman like James Cheng would care who gets elected president of the United States.
Cheng, 46, owns a company in China that makes light fixtures for export, mostly to America. His main factory is currently churning out an order for more than 2,000 illuminated bathroom mirrors for a hotel in Las Vegas.
When then-President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018, many of Cheng's lights were hit with 25% tariffs. Trump has promised tariffs of 60% or more on everything made in China in his second term in a bid to protect American industry and jobs.
"Worrying doesn't help"
But Cheng just shrugs. In 2019, he moved some of his production to Bangkok, Thailand, beyond the reach of tariffs. He says many others in this business in China took similar steps.
"A 60% tariff would push us to increase investments in factories in Southeast Asia, specifically in Thailand in my case," Cheng told NPR at his factory in the southern city of Foshan.
"Whether I export through China, with the tariffs added to the price for consumers, or through Thailand, where higher costs would result in a higher price, the cost will ultimately be borne by U.S. customers," he said, adding: "For ordinary business owners like us, worrying about [the U.S. president] doesn't help."
Beijing ponders what's to come
For policymakers in Beijing, though, it may be hard not to — at least on trade. Soaring tariffs could put a big dent in exports, which have been by far the liveliest segment of an otherwise sluggish economy.
In other areas — from Taiwan to technology — the risks and opportunities of the coming second Trump administration are far less clear at this point.
"I'm sure Beijing, as many other capitals around the world are now, is in a sort of preemptively defensive position," said Wang Zichen, author of the Pekingnology newsletter on Substack and a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, a think tank in Beijing.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping congratulated Trump and said he hoped they could get along and cooperate.
But on trade, analysts say Beijing has been sending warning signals.
"The Chinese are messaging through a number of channels that America should not expect that Beijing will play the relatively careful, calibrated game that they did in the first trade war," said Jude Blanchette, an expert in Chinese politics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington.
He said they would feel much more comfortable using a wider array of punitive retaliatory tools, like currency devaluations, punishment of U.S. companies or allies, or steps to exacerbate U.S. inflation.
"And of course, Beijing has mapped out all the congressional districts. They know exactly what industries are where, so if they need to target specific members of congress, they will do that," Blanchette added.
Beyond trade, the thorniest issue in bilateral relations will be Taiwan, the self-governed democracy that Beijing claims as part of China and wants to annex.
Trump angered China in 2016 by taking a phone call from Taiwan's president after his election. This time around, Taiwan says there are no plans for a call.
On the campaign trail, Trump questioned why the U.S. should help Taiwan defend itself. He's also implied that Xi wouldn't dare move against the island because he respects Trump and knows he's "f***ing crazy", according to an interview with the Wall Street Journal. President Biden, by contrast, has said four times the U.S. would help in the event of a Chinese attack.
Chinese leaders may also be encouraged by Trump's and his running mate J.D. Vance's apparent eagerness to avoid war in general, analysts told NPR.
"We do not know what is his take," said Shen Dingli, an independent international relations scholar in Shanghai. "He wants to bargain, to use his unpredictability to coerce, to deter the mainland."
Shen says Trump will likely have to reconcile with others in the Republican Party who have strong feelings about the U.S. offering more explicit and robust backing of Taiwan.
One example is Trump's former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who some believe is under consideration for a job in the new administration. Pompeo has explicitly called for the U.S. to give Taiwan formal diplomatic recognition – a step that would almost certainly trigger a crisis across the Taiwan Strait.
Shen says who Trump surrounds himself with will be key.
"Last time I think some of them did have problems," he said. "I hope next time he would keep a distance from those radical people."
For now, Beijing is projecting consistency and hoping for the best, according to Wang, from the Center for China and Globalization.
"I think the opportunities lie in that President Trump is pragmatic. Many people would use the word transactional," he said.
"The risk is he's rather unpredictable. And that is actually potentially very challenging."
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