MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Irael's security cabinet approved a ceasefire deal this morning that would halt the fighting in Gaza and allow for the release of a group of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of some of the hostages taken by Hamas during their October 7 massacre in Southern Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's full cabinet is due to meet later today for a final vote. We've been reporting a variety of reactions to these ground-shifting events, and now we want to hear from Michael Oren. He is a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, a former member of the Knesset, and he's been following these events closely. He's with us now. Good morning, Ambassador.
MICHAEL OREN: Good morning. Good morning to you both.
MARTIN: This ceasefire deal is very similar to the one President Biden proposed months ago, which Israel initially rejected. What's changed to make this deal acceptable now? What's your take on that?
OREN: I think two things have happened - one, that Hamas has agreed to some central issues in that negotiation, including letting Israel know which hostages are about to be released. Before they would not release any of the names. There are differences over the number and identity of the Palestinian prisoners who were going to be released from Israeli jails, and the question of from what parts of Gaza the Israeli defense forces would withdraw in the first of the first three phases. I think a big change - and you have to say this - is because there's a new president coming in, and he has a tremendous amount of influence over both Hamas and over Israel. Hamas, because he threatened, quote-unquote, "to let all hell break loose" if they didn't release the hostages. And also, because his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu is such that he can give Netanyahu a much shorter, which we say lease - leash, and say, listen, I want this by the time I'm inaugurated, and it happens.
MARTIN: Based on your knowledge of the situation and the players - and I apologize if I'm asking you to speculate - do you think this deal will hold?
OREN: I think the first phase will hold. Hamas violated a ceasefire on October 7, 2023. It violated the last ceasefire in November 2023. So Hamas has not been known to keep ceasefires. And there will be a large part of the Israeli public - not a majority part but a large part - which wouldn't regret if Hamas were to break the ceasefire. And Israel would renew the efforts to destroy Hamas, because that is what the Israeli government has promised. Its promised total victory. It's very difficult to get the total victory as long as Hamas has hostages. Because Israel's previous assumption that by increasing military pressure on Hamas, Hamas would release the hostages. That was disproven was because when Israel increased military pressure, Hamas didn't release hostages, it shot the hostages. So as long as Hamas has hostages and will have - almost 60 hostages will remain in captivity. Many of them may be alive. We don't know. It'll be very difficult to Israel achieve the total victory even if the ceasefire breaks down.
MARTIN: So to that end, how then is peace achieved? I do want to mention that you wrote a piece this week saying that this hostage deal is - it's titled "The Hostage Deal Is The Price Of Israel's Failures." And in this piece you say that Israel's twin goals in Gaza were fundamentally irreconcilable - to both destroy Hamas and free the hostages. Given that you say that, what would it take to achieve a lasting peace and to free all of the hostages?
OREN: And I think that's the hardest part. Because a lasting peace you can't have with Hamas. Hamas is dedicated to Israel's destruction. Hamas is a terrorist organization. Hamas is firing at Israel even as we speak. There have been rockets fired along the border, even at Jerusalem, and soldiers have been killed. So Hamas is still there. And if you have a Israeli withdrawal - complete withdrawal - Hamas will emerge from the tunnels, and it will reconquer the Gaza strip. And it will mount the next October 7, because that's precisely what its leader said they were going to do. They said they would do it 10,000 times until Israel's destroyed. And as long as Hamas is there, as long as it has hostages - that was my point - it's very difficult for Israel to achieve that twin goal of destroying Hamas and releasing the hostages.
Because the more military pressure you put on Hamas, they shoot the hostages. They don't let them go. And for Israeli society, it's a particular quality of Israeli society - the hostages mean everything to us. And Israeli mothers will say, we won't send our kids to the army unless the hostages are released. It's a sort of a covenant in Israeli society. So it's a quandary. It's a terrible, terrible quandary. One that's never been faced by any country, certainly not by Israel. And there's no quick fix.
What the government is hoping, what Netanyahu is hoping is that the second and third phases will be violated by Hamas and that the war will resume. And the hope is that some hostages will be able to be saved in one way or another. And that's - there's no perfect way forward. You speak of peace. I think Israeli's not thinking about peace right now. They're thinking about how to maybe end the war and get the hostages back in the best way possible.
MARTIN: I say - I take your point on that. I - just as a sort of a point in fairness there, there is, as we know, an existing ceasefire arrangement in Lebanon. And there are reports that both sides have already violated that deal, even though that it seems to be holding in large part. But there are reports that both sides have violated that ceasefire deal. So to that end, if I may ask you, I would love for you to say more about the covenant that you say with the hostages in Israeli society - why getting all of them back, including those who are - who have been killed is such an important part of the covenant, as you said, of Israeli society. And before I let you go, I do want to ask if you would save some time to say if you were advising the Netanyahu government on next steps at this point, I would love to know what you would advise them.
OREN: OK, thank you. It's just a peculiar nature of the - of Israel and of the Jewish people. It's deeply embedded in Jewish law. It is a commandment in the Torah to do everything possible to redeem captives and hostages, and it's hard-wired into our society. Give you an example - on December 8, 1941, President Roosevelt didn't say, well, the Japanese have taken thousands of prisoners. We can't go to war against the Japanese. He said we have to have unconditional surrender. So it's not a big part of American consciousness, but it's huge for Israel.
MARTIN: I see.
OREN: And the state of Israel comes into being saying, we're going to defend the land and the people of Israel. But the other part of the covenant says that if anybody's taken captive in the course of defending the country, the country has to do everything possible to get them back. And again...
MARTIN: I appreciate that explanation. Now, what...
OREN: ...Mothers will say they won't send their kids to the army unless the hostages are redeemed.
MARTIN: That's an important part.
OREN: What I would say to the...
MARTIN: Yes.
OREN: Yeah. What I would say to the prime minister is, yes, go for this deal the best you can. Get as many hostages back. Get an understanding with this new president, not just about Gaza, but about Lebanon. And above all, about Iran. And get the big picture. Because Gaza, as painful, as excruciating as it is, is part of a regional strategic issue and the big, big threat both to the United States to Israel. And all the, you know - America's allies in the Middle East is the regime in Iran.
MARTIN: That is Michael Oren. He is a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, a former member of the Knesset, and an author and historian. Ambassador Oren, thank you so much for joining us.
OREN: Thank you, both. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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