SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Israel's government has approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas after 15 months of war. The ceasefire in Gaza is due to start Sunday morning. Under terms of the deal, Hamas is set to release 33 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees. During the six-week pause, the agreement also calls for further negotiations to end the devastating conflict. Yossi Mekelberg is a senior consulting fellow for the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a foreign policy think tank that's based in London. Thanks so much for being with us.
YOSSI MEKELBERG: Thank you for having me.
SIMON: And why do you think this agreement's been reached now?
MEKELBERG: That's, I think, a key question, and probably the main factor is President-elect Trump, because we all know that a very similar, if not identical, agreement was on the table back in May. And we could have imagined how many life could have been saved, had it been agreed in May. And I think President-elect Trump made it very clear that he would like to see this done before the inauguration on the 20th. He sent his special envoy to speak to Netanyahu, and the pressure was on the Israeli government, also on Hamas, to agree. And he said it in uncertain word - otherwise, hell will break loose.
SIMON: Do you think they were seeking to, I don't want to say curry favor, but do a favor for President Trump?
MEKELBERG: I think a favor is actually quite accurate. I think there is - you know, whether one loves or loathes President-elect Trump, there is a fear factor with him also because of his unpredictability. And definitely when it comes to Netanyahu. And in the balance of fear between his far-right elements in government that were against this deal all along, they're still against this deal. They would like to see the war continues. They have delusions of occupying Gaza and building settlements. And the fear of what might have been or might be the reaction from Trump, he decide the United States is too an important ally to Israel to start the term of a new president on the wrong foot.
SIMON: What might the political consequences be for Prime Minister Netanyahu, do you think?
MEKELBERG: I think he tied himself in so many knots because of the current government that he leads, which is closely related and linked to his corruption trial. He formed the government with people that he knew that will cause him trouble all along. And it was not his choice, but other elements within the Israeli Knesset, and rightly so, said they won't share power with a defendant in a serious corruption trial. So he preferred his interests on the interests of the country, and formed this government. But now they threaten to leave because they sense his weakness, A) because of his corruption trial, but also because he - at the end of the day, he is responsible as the leader of the country for what happened in October 7 - for Israel not being prepared for that, and what has happened since then. So at a certain point, of course, not to take away from the terrible atrocity committed with Hamas, but Israel was not prepared for that. So he's vulnerable politically.
And if you look at public opinion polls, A) most Israelis supported a deal like this for many months, but because of the pressure inside the government, it didn't do. And also, most Israelis would like election and would like to see those who are in opposition now leading the country.
SIMON: Mr. Mekelberg, do you think this means the war is actually over? Will the ceasefire hold?
MEKELBERG: I think it's too early to say. It's a very fragile truth. It's not even a ceasefire. It's a six-weeks truth, and every step on the way, this truth is vulnerable. That's why it - and fragile. That's why it's so important that the United States and the rest of the international community - definitely those that mediated within the region - will follow every stop of - step of the way. 'Cause it's - if you look at the terms of this, the release of the hostages and the prisoners, every few days, few more hostages and more prisoners. Letting Palestinians from Gaza to go back to the north of Gaza, while trying to prevent certain elements to go back to the north. So this is - every step of the way, this can fall apart.
SIMON: And in the half a minute we have left, is there a possibility for what used to be called a two-state solution, that Israel will accept a Palestinian state?
MEKELBERG: I think what we learned from what has happened in the last 15 months, there is - this is the only solution that eventually can lead to a lasting and sustainable peace. And unless there is a two-state solution, I'm afraid we might - we let this conflict to keep festering, and we'll see more rounds of violence.
SIMON: Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House, a London-based think tank. Thank you so much for being with us, sir.
MEKELBERG: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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