PIEN HUANG, HOST:
Not all elections are nail-biters. The former Soviet Republic of Belarus, wedged between Russia and Ukraine, chooses the president this Sunday, and the country's longtime ruler and Kremlin ally, Alexander Lukashenko, is all but certain to extend his 31-year hold on power. But some argue that the event is not without intrigue. That includes NPR Charles Maynes, who covers the former Soviet Union and joins us on the line from Moscow. Welcome, Charles.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Hi there.
HUANG: So set this up for us. What's going on?
MAYNES: Yeah, you know, as you noted, we'll almost certainly see Alexander Lukashenko, a one-time collective farm manager, elected to a seventh term in office. That's extending a rule that began way back in 1994. Now, technically, there are four other candidates on the ballot, but they're essentially running with, not against, Lukashenko. And that's a view shared by Lukashenko, as we learned at a recent campaign event.
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PRESIDENT ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO: (Non-English language spoken).
MAYNES: So here, Lukashenko explains to a group of factory workers that he'd been too busy to learn about the other candidates. But turning on the TV the other day, he was pleased to hear them wishing him victory because, Lukashenko added, their platforms were basically the same.
HUANG: Charles, if I remember correctly, the last time that Belarus held elections, there were huge protests, and I'm wondering if we're expecting to see that again.
MAYNES: Yeah, you know, back in 2020, massive protests broke out across the country following these elections that many felt were rigged in Lukashenko's favor. Lukashenko and his security forces quickly and rather brutally cracked down. There were some 30,000 arrests, including of key opposition figures. Others were forced into exile. Now, if you fast-forward to today, that protest movement has completely been snuffed out, says Yauheni Preiherman, director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations.
YAUHENI PREIHERMAN: It's been only five years in between the two elections, but I think it's like an entire era has gone, not only in terms of here, the domestic situation, but also in the region and in the world.
HUANG: Yeah, so he's mentioning the region and the world. I mean, Belarus' big ally, of course, is Russia. So what role is Russia playing in all of this?
MAYNES: Well, again, you have to go back to 2020. Russian President Vladimir Putin's backing, both financial and otherwise, proved instrumental in keeping Lukashenko in power in his moment of need. But it came at a price. Putin turned Belarus essentially into a vassal state. It helps explain why Russia later used Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine two years later and why Russia has since placed its nukes on Belarusian soil. Lukashenko may be in power in Minsk, but after 2020, it's really Putin calling most of the shots.
HUANG: And Charles, like, what is the view of the U.S. and other Western countries on all of this?
MAYNES: Well, it's early days with the Trump administration, but generally, the West has no illusions about Lukashenko and certainly these elections, which they see as a farce. You know, Western countries have levied a range of sanctions and given support to Belarus' opposition in exile, who have united behind the presumed real winner of that 2020 race, a woman by the name of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. But there's only so much she can impact what's happening inside Belarus itself. In fact, the opposition is urging people to boycott the election and not protest because it's too dangerous.
HUANG: Charles, it's a pretty dark picture of events that you're painting here.
MAYNES: You know, it is, and yet, there's one small bright spot. Lukashenko has recently amnestied some political prisoners, nearly 300 people. No one is suggesting it's a political thaw. Many remain in jail. But Lukashenko - he may see this moment - when there's a new administration in Washington, when there's this potential for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine - you know, it may be a chance of course correct, to reestablish at least some dialogue with the West and maybe some autonomy from the Kremlin in the process.
HUANG: That's NPR's Charles Maynes, who joins us from Moscow. Charles, thank you.
MAYNES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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