SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Is the United States trying to end the war in Ukraine without Ukraine's agreement? President Trump has said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two ultimately expect to meet to broker an end of the fighting. His secretary of defense, Pete Hegeth said Kyiv should not expect to get back all the territory that Russia's occupied, and it is just not realistic for Ukraine to join NATO as part of any agreement. A day later, he then said everything's on the table. John Herbst is former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine under President George W. Bush. He's now senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and joins us from the Munich Security Conference. Thanks for being with us, Ambassador.
JOHN HERBST: My pleasure.
SIMON: What do you make of what you've seen and heard in Munich over the past couple of days?
HERBST: It's been a very tumultuous two days here, following a tumultuous two or three days in Washington, regarding the Trump administration's efforts to end this war - Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
You mentioned the statement that Hegseth had made, which disturbed many people - Ukrainian and European, and for that matter, American. But that was kind of walked back by an interesting party. JD Vance in that interview he gave. What was reported in The Wall Street Journal two or three days ago.
SIMON: Yeah.
HERBST: And as you pointed out in your lead-up, Hegseth himself walked back a little bit, too. I just came from a big Ukraine lunch sponsored by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation that featured General Kellogg, who, I think, gave a very strong description of the policy to a somewhat skeptical audience. And I'm not going to say he completely won them over, but he certainly, I think, made some progress in that direction.
SIMON: So in your estimation, Mr. Ambassador, the United States is not - if I might be blunt - abandoning Ukraine?
HERBST: I don't think that's happening at all. I think that there may be some influential voices in Trump world that would like to do that. But I think that the approach the Trump administration has laid out could - now, I'm not saying would, but could lead to a durable peace. But we've seen some steps in the wrong direction over the past five days. You know, there was a point there when, you know, President Trump seemed to be giving priority to his connections with Putin. But even when he was doing that, he said, you know, Russia may want to go beyond the lines that would be established by a ceasefire, and we can't allow that. And I think that sort of remains what they're trying to do - get a ceasefire kind of in place with some adjustments and an end to the fighting.
SIMON: Might NATO countries that share a border with Ukraine - Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia - think they could be next in Russia's sites if Moscow ends up being rewarded with part of Ukraine?
HERBST: You know, if you look back at the things Putin has said for years - if you look back at those two draft treaties that he sent - one to us and one to NATO in December of 2021, two months before the big invasion, his aims go well beyond Ukraine. And if, in fact, Putin were to win in Ukraine because of weak American policy and weak Western policy more broadly, there's no question that other countries, including NATO countries, would be vulnerable. The most vulnerable, of course, would be the three Baltic states, but also Poland to a lesser extent and Romania.
SIMON: Mr. Ambassador, JD Vance, the vice president, shook up some European leaders this week with a speech he gave this week.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE: The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia. It's not China. It's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within - the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values.
SIMON: What do you make of that remark and European leaders hearing that phrase, the threat from within?
HERBST: Clearly, that was the talk of the town - the town of Munich - after he gave that speech. People were, at a minimum, irritated, some indignant - and that reflection of the very different view that the Trump team has on such issues as misinformation and censorship, and where their outlook is rather different than that of most of the European states - not all, but most.
SIMON: Is - what's the future of the NATO alliance, given all the questions right now?
HERBST: Well, I don't think that Secretary Hegseth has done that well in addressing the Russia-Ukraine - Russia's aggression in Ukraine. But I think he gave significant reassurances to our NATO allies on America's commitment to the alliance. But, of course, he sounded the theme that Trump sounded during his first term and again now, that Europe must do a lot more in its own defense. And the Europeans - and it's really quite interesting watching the dynamic here in Munich. The Europeans are beginning to come to grips with that. And that's a good thing.
SIMON: Europeans are coming together regardless of U.S. policy or because of it?
HERBST: Well, I think they need to understand, if the U.S. steps back a little bit, they're going to have to step up. And we're beginning to see serious conversation about the need to do that on the part of the Europeans. That wasn't true three or four weeks ago.
SIMON: John Herbst is former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, speaking with us from the Munich Security Conference. Mr. Ambassador, thanks so much for joining us.
HERBST: Thank you very much. A pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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