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On April 1, voters in Wisconsin will go to the polls to pick a state Supreme Court justice. It's the kind of race that normally would not get much attention, but it's a race that could offer some clues about the upcoming 2026 election cycle and about Elon Musk's power in politics. NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson has more.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: On the airwaves in Wisconsin, it sounds like a typical race. Republicans are bashing the Democratic candidate on crime.
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UNIDENTIFIED NARRATOR: Susan Crawford had one job - keep a convicted rapist behind bars. Yet Crawford didn't bother filing the appeal in time, letting the rapist walk free.
LIASSON: And the Democrats are attacking the Republican on abortion.
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LAUREL: When I was pregnant, I had complications, but because of the ban, doctors couldn't help me. Brad Schimel has no idea what it's like to lay in a hospital bed, pregnant and dying.
LIASSON: But this battle for a seat on the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is no ordinary race. It's the first race of the 2026 cycle with national implications. That's because the race will determine the balance of power on the state court, which will not only decide issues like abortion, but could determine whether congressional district maps maintain the current big Republican advantage or are redrawn to reflect Wisconsin's half red and half blue population.
Off-year races like this one are like canaries in the coal mine. Long before the midterm elections, they'll be examined for answers to a bunch of political questions, such as will the abortion rights side win again, as it has in almost every state race since Roe v. Wade was overturned? Another big one is about the Democrats, who are still reeling from their defeat in November and struggling to raise money. Ben Wikler is the chairman of the Wisconsin State Democratic Party.
BEN WIKLER: The fundamental question in this race will be whether Democrats have the fighting spirit to turn out in the numbers that are needed to demonstrate that they are still in the game. So many Democrats went into the fetal position after Trump won, and the question is, can we get up off the mat?
LIASSON: And there's something else brand-new in this race - Elon Musk. After spending close to $300 million to elect Donald Trump, Musk, one of the richest men on the planet, is pouring money into the Wisconsin court race, according to ad tracking data and campaign finance reporting. We reached out to Musk's super PAC, Building America's Future, but didn't get a response. Ian Vandewalker, of the Brennan Center for Justice, says big donors on both sides are nothing new, but Musk is a different order of magnitude.
IAN VANDEWALKER: One of the biggest spenders ever in American history and the most willing to get involved in politics. And I think it does call attention to the power of a single individual who has his own business interests, his own political agenda.
LIASSON: While Musk's billions are intimidating, Ben Wikler thinks they might not be a guaranteed benefit for Republicans.
WIKLER: One thing that's so striking about Musk getting involved in this race is that, as he's done with our national politics, he's making this about himself. That energizes Democrats. This is something that could backfire on the GOP.
LIASSON: At least that's what Democrats in Wisconsin are hoping.
BRIAN SCHIMMING: If the Democrats in this state want to pin their race for the Supreme Court on Elon Musk, go right ahead.
LIASSON: That's Brian Schimming, chair of the Wisconsin Republican State Party. To him, Elon Musk's money is a powerful boost for Republicans.
SCHIMMING: If Elon Musk wants to spend time and effort and treasure in Wisconsin, we would most certainly welcome it.
LIASSON: Ian Vandewalker says Musk's involvement could cut both ways - kind of like Trump, who motivates people to come out and vote for him and against him.
VANDEWALKER: Does he turn into a political third rail or is he a hero to one side and a villain to the other, or is he sort of neutral? I think we're still seeing how that's going to play out.
LIASSON: Right now, Elon Musk is the most powerful man in the country other than Donald Trump, and the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race could reveal whether Musk's virtually unlimited bank account is a silver bullet for Republicans or whether Musk himself and his chainsaw cuts to the federal government have become a liability.
Mara Liasson, NPR News.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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