North Carolina crashed the swing state party in 2024, especially after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket.
All along, political observers had expected six states to decide whether or not former President Donald Trump would return to the White House: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
But North Carolina was the state Trump won by the smallest margin in 2020, and as this year's presidential contest has entered its final stretch, both parties are pouring resources, time and energy into the Tarheel State. Polls show a close race in North Carolina.
To get a sense of where things stand away from the campaign rallies themselves, an NPR team took on the hardship assignment of a trip to the state fair. Amid the midway rides and fried food stands, we learned three key things about the race in North Carolina.
1. Election ads — and Mark Robinson — loom large
The most remarkable thing about our time in North Carolina was how inundated we were by the election. Every commercial break on just about every TV channel is filled, start to finish, with campaign ads. The same goes for the radio, and the pre-roll ads popping up on YouTube and social media feeds.
The election wormed its way into the fairgrounds, too: vendors were selling airbrushed t-shirts featuring Trump's defiant post-assassination attempt fist pump, with the caption "You Missed!" A beef jerky stand converted its tip jar into a straw poll, with one cup featuring an image of Harris and the other of Trump. (Trump had a decisive $12-to-$0 lead in this unscientific poll.)
"I get to the point where I'm ready for the election to be over," Deja Boston told us, as she, her husband Rahmode, and their six-month-old-daughter Kynslei stopped near the North Carolina Democratic Party's booth. She sees "too many" ads — "a thousand." The Bostons tick off the incoming political content: text messages… television… radio…
What, if anything, has cut through all that noise? The Bostons both instantly respond: Mark Robinson.
The state's Republican lieutenant governor, who's running for governor, is playing a starring role in many of the ads blanketing North Carolina. Not necessarily his own campaign's ads, but rather, Democratic attack ads trying to link Republicans up and down the ballot to Robinson's controversial statements and policy stances, especially his strict opposition to abortion rights.
The Trump campaign and other Republicans have distanced themselves from Robinson, especially in the wake of a CNN report Robinson denies that ties him to racist and offensive comments made on a pornographic website. But he still has his supporters.
"He's very vocal, he's very opinionated," said Faye New. "But they have taken some of the things he said out of context. They don't tell you the whole paragraph. They just see one line and say, ‘Oh, that sounds nasty, let's put it in there.’"
2. Everyone is anxious
Faye New is an unabashed Republican hardliner. We approach her because of her outfit: a bright pink WOMEN FOR ROBINSON cap, and a t-shirt that reads, "I'm voting for the convicted felon." (A New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records in a criminal case earlier this year. He's facing felony charges in three additional cases, as well.)
She's quick with an answer on everything, except … the outcome of what's shaping up to be an incredibly tight race in North Carolina. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have spent millions of dollars in the state, and have returned week after week for campaign events. Polls show a near-deadlocked race in a state that hasn't voted Democrat on the presidential level since 2008. "It's tighter than I like it," New concedes. "But you never know ‘til it's all said and done."
Later on, we come across Debbie and Lew Love, who are wearing homemade hats supporting Harris: they feature a blue comma, as in the punctuation, and a red cursive LA. They voted earlier that day, and likely don't share many opinions with New, except that same anxiety about the result. "My gut starts churning at 2 a.m., and I can't get it off my mind," Debbie Love said. “I just pray about it."
Lew Love takes a more optimistic view: "If [Democrats] can carry North Carolina, we'll be in good shape."
That's true. The state's 16 electoral votes will likely play a key role in either Harris or Trump's path to 270, and the White House.
3. The 2024 election is about … many things
The political importance of North Carolina is clear. What's less clear is what the 2024 presidential race is primarily about. We asked every voter we came across what, to them, the stakes and story of the election were, and got a wide range of answers.
Like many Democrats, Debbie Lew said it came down to reproductive rights and the ongoing fallout in state legislatures across the country from the U.S. Supreme Court's 2022 decision overturning Roe V. Wade.
"Don't make me start crying over the abortion thing. It tears my heart out of my chest," Lew said. "Because if a 12-year-old, 13-year-old, 16-year-old — if they're impregnated," she said, trailing off. "I need to have the right to decide."
The North Carolina legislature passed a 12-week abortion ban in the wake of the Dobbs decision. It's a major theme of Democratic campaign ads, and Harris is campaigning on signing a federal law restoring protections previously granted by Roe V. Wade.
Many Republicans see the race differently — even Dr. Bill Pincus, who was manning North Carolina Right To Life's booth at the fair. Pincus spoke passionately about how he believes life begins at conception, and that to him, opposing abortion rights is about protecting life. But when we asked him what the election was about, he said the economy. "I think the real thing is everybody's hurting, because prices have gone up so much," he said.
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Inflation has leveled out over the past year, but the topic remains raw, and politically potent, for conservatives. Derek Nipper, who was working the state Republican Party's booth, said for him, the election is about "my wallet. I remember when Trump was in office, I was able to put up not a lot, but maybe $200 a paycheck." Now, he said, "I'm struggling to make it to payday with money in my pocket."
There's one more factor: one that Harris is not campaigning on directly, but that's nevertheless top of mind to many voters. "To be honest with you," said Deja Boston, "it's just historical for me as a Black woman."
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