Elections

In this election, demographics did not determine how people voted

By Domenico Montanaro,

Elena Moore, Nick McMillan, Connie Hanzhang Jin, Daniel Wood

Published November 22, 2024 at 5:00 AM EST

In the debate over whether demography is destiny, the 2024 presidential election showed clearly it is not.

Democrats long believed that the diversifying of the country would lead to their party's long-term success, but President-elect Trump was able to win over many of the voters Democrats believed they could rely on, showing identity is less important when people feel negatively toward the incumbent party on things like prices and immigration.

The demographic shifts seen in this election were pronounced in the swing states, with different groups mattering to different degrees in Trump's sweep, according to exit polls.

Here were some clear trends:

Democrats lost ground with voters under 30 in nearly every swing state – with the exception of Georgia, where Harris gained slightly, and Arizona, where support was the same. The decline was especially pronounced in the former Blue Wall states in the industrial Midwest, where younger voters moved in double-digits away from Democrats.
There was a seismic shift with Latino voters. In the last few elections, they have gradually declined in their support of the Democratic Party, and 2024 saw a dramatic swing to the right with them. In some states — like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan — Latinos shifted right by more than 20 points.

Black voters also supported Democrats in lower numbers compared to previous elections in many places, but the shift was less dramatic than with Latino voters. There was one notable exception, however: Wisconsin, where Democrats saw steep decline with Black voters.
White voters were a higher share of the electorate and voted in large numbers for Trump. Trump's margin with white voters was essentially unchanged, but white voters making up larger shares of the electorate in key states helped fuel his victory.

There's a political realignment taking place, not just on education and race, but also by age. Older voters, for example, were once seen as a solid Republican voting bloc, but seniors shifted away from Trump in the majority of the swing states (North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia).

It should be noted that exit polling, conducted by Edison Research, has margins of error like other polling. Therefore, the shifts are not exact, but there were many that were significant and outside the margins of error.

Below is a state-by-state analysis of some of the more significant shifts that handed Trump a second term in the White House:

Georgia: Latinos helped fuel Trump's win

Trump increased his margin with white voters, who made up 6-in-10 of those who cast ballots. He also cut into Harris' margins with Latinos, won wider margins with voters 45 and older, and men made up a bigger share of the electorate than four years ago.

All of that helped him win the state despite Harris winning younger voters by more than Biden four years ago, the only swing state where that was the case. Black voters voted at about the same margin.

North Carolina: Trump makes eye-popping gains with young voters

Trump made huge gains with young voters and Latinos, who shifted by double-digits in Trump's direction, and he cut into Harris' margins with Black voters, too. Trump also drove up his margins with men and won by a big margin with white voters, both of which turned out at higher shares of the electorate than four years ago.

Trump's gains with young voters in the state were eye-popping. When former President Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he won voters 18-29 years old by 48 points. Harris, though, won them by just 3, the worst showing for a Democrat in the last five elections.

Harris got better margins with women, older voters (65+) and white voters but nowhere near enough to counterbalance Trump's increases with other groups.

Arizona: Trump sees double-digit gains with Latinos

Latinos went up significantly as a share of the electorate, going from less than 1-in-5 voters in 2020 to more than a quarter this year. Trump gained by double-digits with Latinos and improved with white voters, too.

Harris got about the same level of support with voters under 30 as Biden did, but Trump won a majority of those 30 and older and increased his margins with Americans 30-44 years old and those over 65.

Nevada: Latinos and Asian Americans tipped the state in Trump's favor

Latinos and Asian Americans, who together made up almost 1 in 4 voters in the state in this election, swung heavily toward Trump, tipping the state in his favor. Latinos shifted right by 28 points, Asian American voters by a whopping 52 points. Trump won both groups – Latinos by 2 points, AAPI voters by a whopping 23 points. Biden won Latinos by 25 and AAPI voters by 29 four years ago.

Trump also gained with men. He won a wider margin with them, and they made up more of the electorate. And he made inroads with voters under 45 and won seniors by a little more. Voters under 30 made up a significantly smaller share of the electorate and went for Harris by 8 points less than in 2020.

Michigan: Harris saw sharp declines with Latinos and younger voters

Harris saw stinging declines with Latinos and younger voters. Latinos swung more than 30 points toward Trump, while voters under 30 moved more than 20 points in his direction, leading Trump to win both groups. These were the worst showings for a Democrat with either group in the state in at least the last five presidential elections.

Trump also won those who identified racially as "other" by a substantial margin. Likely included within that category were some Middle Eastern and Arab American voters, a group that has traditionally voted for Democrats, but whose support fractured this year, in large measure because of the Biden administration's response to the Israel-Hamas war. Dearborn, Mich., is home to roughly 100,000 Arab Americans, the largest concentration anywhere in the country.

Only about half of Muslim and Arab Americans nationally said they supported Harris in the general election, which is roughly a 15-point drop compared to 2020, according to polling from the Council on American Islamic Relations.

Harris did make some gains among seniors, saw marginal losses with Black voters and held her own with white voters, but those massive drops with Latinos and young voters were damaging.

Wisconsin: Harris' problems with Black and younger voters in the spotlight

Trump significantly cut into Democrats' margins with Black voters and young voters here. Black voters shifted right by 30 points compared to four years earlier, while Harris saw a more than 20-point drop with young voters.

In previous election years, typically about 9-in-10 Black voters in the state have backed the Democratic candidate. This year, it was only about three-quarters. Biden won younger voters by 23 points in 2020; this year, Harris won by just 1.

Trump's support among white voters stayed constant – and made up more than 8 in 10 voters. Similarly to Michigan, Harris saw an increase in support among seniors, who made up about a quarter of the state's electorate.

Pennsylvania: Significant shifts with Latinos, younger voters and Black men

Harris saw double-digit declines with voters under 45, a drastic loss with Latinos and significant drops with Black men.

With Latinos, Harris's vote margin was more than 20 points lower than Biden's. It's the worst performance in the state for a Democratic presidential candidate among Latinos in at least the last five presidential elections. And that was despite all the attention around racist comments made by a comedian at Madison Square Garden in New York before a Trump rally, calling Puerto Rico a floating island of "garbage."

That spurred social media outcry from lots of celebrities, from Bad Bunny to Jennifer Lopez. Half of Pennsylvania's Latino population is of Puerto Rican descent, or about 250,000 people, according to demographer William Frey at the Brookings Institution.

The largest concentration of Puerto Ricans in the state is in Reading, Pa. But Trump won the county Reading is in (Berks) by a wider margin than four years ago.

Black voters are also crucial to Democrats' chances in the state. They didn't shift much overall; they were down marginally for Harris. But many Black men moved right. In 2020, Black men voted 89%-10% for Biden. This year, support among the group for Harris was just 72%-24%.

Exit polls are conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, which comprises the major TV broadcast networks. NPR did not pay for exit polls. The exit polls change, as the results are matched to final, actual vote tallies. NPR had access to exit polling from 2008 to the 2024 election. Given the prevalence of early voting, the exit polls interview tens of thousands of people across the country and in key states before and after Election Day.

They still have margins of error, but they are lower than for a traditional pre-election national or state survey. A good national poll, for example, will include 1,000 or more people and have a margin of error of +/- 3-4 percentage points. With nearly all votes counted — with some provisional ballots still outstanding in places like California — the exit polls have settled to a point where the results won't likely change very much and trends can be seen outside the margins of error. Rounding may affect the numbers above and result in minor discrepancies with exit polls posted by other outlets, like CNN and NBC, for example.