STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Now let's bring Ron Brownstein into the conversation. He's a columnist for Bloomberg, a senior political analyst for CNN. Ron, welcome back.
RON BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
INSKEEP: So we were just hearing about some of the analysis of the results. What do you make of the - what do you make of this election when you analyze the results we have so far?
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. I guess, you know, living in California, I'm somewhat more accustomed to earthquakes than I used to be. But even...
INSKEEP: Ha.
BROWNSTEIN: ...So, this is a pretty good trembler. Probably not since 1974 have Democrats had as good a midterm. And I think, to me, this election was defined not only by the depth but the breadth of President Trump's erosion. You know, I've called this the Casablanca election. The fundamental things apply. No matter what else was going on - I mean, there was a lot going on in all of these races - the driving engine of this election was dissatisfaction with Trump's second term. Sixty-two percent of voters said they disapproved of his performance as president in the voter poll, and over 80% of them voted Democratic. Two-thirds of voters said his policies had hurt, not helped the economy.
And in a way, Steve, that was not true in his first term, that negative verdict spread into core red constituencies and red states. And that's what allowed Democrats to win. I think Democrats won the most states that voted double digits for the president of the other party in a Senate race since 1986. So that's really what made it possible. It was not only the depth but the breath of this verdict on Trump's second term.
INSKEEP: I want to drill in on just one state where I had an opportunity to talk with a lot of voters. We did a road trip across North Carolina. And of course, you would expect the blue cities to vote big for Democrats, and they did. And the Democratic candidate for Senate, Roy Cooper, won easily. But also in red counties, there seems to have been a change. We were in Stokes County, where there was a battle over a data center, and a lot of conservatives were concerned. Stokes County was almost 80% for Trump - still went for the Republican this time, but much more like the 60s. Mitchell...
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...County - people were unhappy about hurricane relief - went from the 70s down to the 60s. The 11th Congressional District in far-western North Carolina flipped to the Democrats. These are deep-red rural areas that seemed willing to give Democrats a shot.
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. You know, look. I'm looking at a map right now of North Carolina and the swing in vote from 2024 presidential into the Senate race. And it's the reverse of what we saw in 2024, when you had those red arrows pointing, you know, in over 90% of the counties in the country. Virtually every county - I think literally every county in North Carolina moved in a blue direction in the Senate race, compared to the 2024 presidential race. Now, you know, Republicans still won a lot of those rural places, as you say, but the margins were reduced. And the Democrats then blew off the doors in the urban, suburban centers. And that's pretty much what we saw.
You know, even if you look at Ohio, if you look at Kansas - Ohio, both the Senate and governor races, Iowa, both the Senate and governor races - Democrats improved almost everywhere. They didn't win most rural places. But as, you know, one of the strategists said to me in October, the goal is really to lose by less. Not only Jon Ossoff, but Keisha Lance Bottoms improved in almost every county. I mean, this was a society-wide verdict. Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who has been working in national politics since the 1980s, said to me in late October this is the broadest consensus in her political career that a president has failed. And I think that's what you reflected...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
BROWNSTEIN: ...Last night.
INSKEEP: I mean, I was just thinking about, like - I had to go back to - in memory to, like, the - before I was born, in the 1960s, when you would sometimes have 50- and 60-seat...
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...Swings in the House. It's a swing that didn't even seem was possible anymore in a partisan country.
BROWNSTEIN: It - totally. Yeah. I mean, they talked about the calcified politics, how dug in we are. This just overwhelmed even those - you know, even those assessments. I mean, you - what we - as we say, basically everywhere moved. And when you get - and kind of the reverse of what we saw in '24. And when you get that kind of movement, I think it is beyond questions of tactics or failures of individual candidates. Basically, a significant majority of Americans believe that Trump's second-term agenda has failed the country, that Trump, as we saw in the poll, is more focused on his own obsessions and priorities, enriching himself, than on their problems. And they believe that Republicans have signed up for all of it without providing any meaningful change.
INSKEEP: Let me ask about that. A...
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...Lot of Republicans thought 2024 fundamentally reshaped politics.
BROWNSTEIN: Right.
INSKEEP: And they needed to just obey Trump in all things. Now Democrats have this big win. Should Democrats assume they've fundamentally reshaped the board?
BROWNSTEIN: No. I mean, no, clearly. Look, the biggest thing that happened last night was the voters that moved toward Trump in '24 - younger men, Latinos, Black men, Asian Americans - moved sharply back. That doesn't mean they are reliably Democrats again. It does mean they are the largest bloc of swing voters in the country. And if - and they are on the table for Democrats in '28, but they have to deliver to hold them.
INSKEEP: Ron Brownstein, columnist for Bloomberg and senior political analyst for CNN. Glad to have your insights. Thank you, sir.
BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me.
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