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Home prices peaking nationwide, but Jacksonville grows more overpriced

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Randy Roguski
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WJCT News
This 1,900-square-foot home in Fleming Island sold for $402,600.

Although home prices are peaking across the country, houses are still growing more overpriced in Jacksonville, partly because people continue to move here.

The average price of $375,228 in Jacksonville last month was almost 47% more than you'd expect based on long-term pricing trends, according to a study released Thursday by Florida Atlantic and Florida International universities.

That compared with 45% the month before, marking the 24th straight month that homes became more overvalued here, the study said.

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Beracha and Johnson Housing Market Ranking
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Florida Atlantic and Florida International universities

Jacksonville was the 23rd most-overpriced market in the country, compared with 100 metro areas.

Nationwide, homes became less overvalued last month in 27 of 100 markets, including Austin, Texas; Denver; Minneapolis; Los Angeles; Phoenix; Salt Lake City, Utah; San Francisco; and Seattle.

Average prices actually declined in 22 or those 27 areas, the study said. They grew 1.4% in Jacksonville.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors reported earlier this month that the frenzied housing market was beginning to slow, with more homes on the market for longer periods. But median prices still remained higher than normal, increasing 0.5% in July to about $400,000 for a single-family home, the association said.

"We are at the turning point" nationwide, said FAU real estate economist Ken H. Johnson. "The likelihood of significant price increases in the near future grows smaller by the day."

Markets with stagnant or declining populations and more homes for sale — such as metros in California, Oregon and Washington — could experience major price declines, according to the FAU/FIU study.

Growing places like Northeast Florida probably won't see huge declines, which means affordable housing could remain a problem.

“Will prices decline quickly and noticeably or will we see the nation’s inventory issues support prices at the expense of a prolonged period of housing unaffordability?” Johnson said. “This will all depend on population movements and how fast we build much-needed housing units.”

Randy comes to Jacksonville from the South Florida Sun Sentinel, where, as metro editor, he led investigative coverage of the Parkland school shooting that won the 2019 Pulitzer Prize for public service. He has spent more than 40 years in reporting and editing positions in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. You can reach Randy at rroguski@wjct.org or on Twitter, @rroguski.