State analysts have reduced their previous estimate for state tax and revenue collections by $167 million, citing a continued decline in corporate income tax collections.
The new estimate determined during a Friday meeting reduces a February 9 forecast of a two-year increase of $462 million to $274.4 million.
The revised estimate means House and Senate members who are working on an $87 billion budget for 2018-2019 will have a little less money to use as they negotiate a final budget deal.
The previous forecast acknowledged that corporate income tax collections were $113 million below estimates through December.
But analysts concluded that was caused by a state decision to let businesses impacted by Hurricane Irma hold off on tax payments until Feb. 15.
They projected the shortfall would be negated when the delayed payments began coming in, the analysts said.
It didn’t happen. “While the data for February is still preliminary, it appears that only a small fraction of the expected total was actually received,” the new forecast said.
Analysts cut their projection for corporate income tax collections in 2017-2018 by $94.3 million and by $73.1 million in 2018-2019, resulting in the $167 million decline in the overall estimate.
Facing a March 9 end to the annual legislative session, lawmakers have not started formal negotiations on a new state budget, which will take effect July 1.
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