LEILA FADEL, HOST:
President-elect Trump says he wants to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal and has called making Canada the 51st U.S. state a, quote, "great idea." Never mind that they're all sovereign territories or nations. Trump's interest in these places is economic. It's about trade. And his team has said it's part of a broader strategy.
Brown University professor of Earth sciences Amanda Lynch has been studying climate change in the Arctic for nearly 30 years. She told me some of the increased trade in places like Greenland is due to ice melts caused by climate change. As temperatures rise, the Arctic could become a pathway that reduces traffic in the Panama Canal.
AMANDA LYNCH: I wouldn't seek to speak to what Trump is thinking about in this space. But from the perspective of the Arctic, Greenland is our eyes on everything that's going on, including on the Northern Sea Route, which is controlled by Russia. In addition, Greenland has many resources - not just hydrocarbons, but also rare earth minerals and uranium. And when we're thinking about the green energy transition, access to rare earth minerals in particular is important for any nation.
For the Panama Canal, it's more associated with trade rather than geopolitics, where the Panama Canal is a short route between, say, New York and Shanghai, for example. So that route is affected by drought because every ship through the canal uses up around 50 million gallons of water.
FADEL: Right, and it's not that simple to just annex territory. I mean, Denmark and Panama would have something to say about it. But let's go into the impact of climate change in a place like Greenland.
LYNCH: So Greenland is a territory of the kingdom of Denmark but is home to an Indigenous community that have lived there for tens of thousands of years. And for them, climate change is a double-edged sword. There are negatives associated with the melting of the ice sheet, and that certainly causes sea level rise. It causes massive waves as ice chunks fall off into the ocean, which causes danger to the coastal communities. But at the same time, it is freeing up land for agriculture because those are communities that live around the edges of the ice sheet.
FADEL: And what are the biggest concerns in operating in Greenland for commercial purposes?
LYNCH: So as the climate is changing, the ice is becoming less strong, less thick. It moves much more quickly. As the weather becomes more extreme, there are issues with predictability and being able to do good forecasts. And so in general, it becomes much more dangerous to operate in these very uncertain and rapidly changing conditions.
FADEL: And when it comes to Panama, what are the main concerns from the climate perspective?
LYNCH: The big concern with Panama is drought. There is a reservoir that feeds the lock system that goes through the canal, and that has been under severe stress. It's worse in El Nino years, but there's a general trend of drying in that area, and that's really challenging the capacity for the canal to be able to get large ships through. And that's not something that we can control by annexing the territory. We can't suddenly create water where there is none.
FADEL: What would the appeal of taking control of the canal from a U.S. perspective be?
LYNCH: Really, it's just the economic argument. There are tolls and tariffs associated with using that as a facility. And so having access to it where we don't have to pay for those tolls and tariffs - that would reduce the cost, but it doesn't increase the accessibility.
FADEL: As you mention, Greenland is a territory of Denmark. The Panama Canal is under Panama's control. How likely is it that Trump could actually take control of these two areas at all?
LYNCH: I don't imagine that it's very likely. I think the more productive path to take is to continue to pursue those strong partnerships, and we can support those sovereign governments to develop their assets and to work with us. And if we're positive actors in that space, then I think that that's both the more positive and also the more likely path forward.
FADEL: That's Brown University professor of Earth sciences Amanda Lynch. Thank you so much for your time.
LYNCH: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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