The Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF found 52 percent of respondents plan to vote for Curry and 15 percent for Brosche. If that were the vote total on election day, March 19, it would mean Curry would win reelection without needing to compete in a runoff.
Candidates need 50 percent of the vote, plus one, to win outright on March 19. Otherwise, the top two vote getters in each race will square off in a May 14 runoff.
Brosche and Curry are both Republicans. No Democrats are running for mayor. The other mayoral candidates are:
“It’s very late in the game to dramatically change the narrative of these races,” said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.
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Brosche has courted Democrats, but UNF’s poll indicates that’s not working as well as her campaign might hope. That's despite voters reporting that crime is an important concern.
Binder said on First Coast Connect with Melissa Ross Wednesday that among some voters Brosche's targeting of Democrats might actually be helping Curry. “I think part of it is the political aspect. He's a Republican. Republicans are concerned about crime, they might view Anna as a turncoat, because she’s reached out to Democrats in this community,” said Binder.
Among Democrats, 25 percent indicate they plan to vote for Curry, 25 percent for Brosche, 12 percent for Allen and 2 percent for Hill. Thirty-two percent of Democratic likely voters are undecided.
Of Republican likely voters, 78 percent say they will vote for Curry, while only 4 percent indicate they’ll vote for Brosche, 4 percent for Hill and 1 percent for Allen. Thirteen percent don’t know.
As of Wednesday at 2 p.m. there were 247,414 Democrats and 220,552 Republicans registered to vote in Duval County, according to the Supervisor of Elections website.
The poll was compiled February 16 through 19, by live callers via telephone. UNF says its sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The complete methodology used is available on UNF’s website.
WJCT's Melissa Ross contributed to this report.