Two areas of interest are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible development in the Atlantic Ocean, but neither are a current threat to Florida or the United States.
Medium chances off Mid-Atlantic coast
A disturbance a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda isn't very organized, but conditions may become more favorable for tropical development by Friday. The system is slowly moving west-northwest toward the United States, but is likely to merge with an approaching front this weekend that will turn it away from land. The interactions between the approaching front and potential development are likely to agitate near shore waters and lead to an elevated rip current risk from Virginia to South Carolina through Sunday.
Although this system poses no tropical threat to Florida, upper-level winds may pull some of it's embedded moisture back to the southwest toward the peninsula early next week. This would yield higher than normal rain chances across portions of north and central Florida should it come to pass, but confidence remains low in this potential scenario.
Development likely in central Atlantic
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has quickly become better organized over the past couple of days, and development into a tropical depression is likely by Friday. Conditions are even somewhat favorable for the system, known to forecasters as Invest 95, to develop into a named storm this weekend as it moves briskly to the west-northwest. Thereafter, the environment is forecast to be far less conducive for future development as it nears the Lesser Antilles. And in fact, long range forecast data suggests strong winds aloft could even cause Invest 95 to dissipate entirely before reaching the Caribbean or The Bahamas.
Perspective on the prospects
July is usually a relatively quiet month in the tropics, especially in the Main Development Region (or MDR) where Invest 95 is located. Ocean temperatures are usually a bit too cool, upper-level winds too strong, and moisture lacking to support tropical activity in this area of the Atlantic at this point in the season. This is especially true this year, as water temperatures are abnormally cool across a large area of the Atlantic Basin.
The colder waters are largely attributed to higher-than-normal pressure tendencies, which in turn produces stronger trade winds from the east that causes more ocean upwelling. These winds also aid in the spread of the Saharan Air Layer, which is often filled with dust from sandstorms over north Africa. The dust then also reduces solar insolation, further contributing to the cooler than normal Atlantic waters.
If the cooler water temperature trend continues across the MDR through the months of August and September, it could drastically reduce the overall number of tropical cyclones that develop in the Atlantic basin this year. In an update released Monday, Colorado State's forecasters say below average activity is now expected for the season as a whole, which officially ends November 30.
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