Invest 91 was classified as a Tropical Depression Monday night and the system sits only 80 miles east of Vero Beach. Florida Public Radio Meteorologist Jeff Huffman said even though the storm could strengthen over the coming days, the impact to Florida will be rather minimal.
"Florida is likely to dodge a bullet," he said. "Tropical Depression One could strengthen into a hurricane by week’s end, but by then the storm would be primarily a threat to the Mid-Atlantic states."
The season’s first depression will likely become Tropical Storm Arthur later Tuesday as it crawls closer to Florida’s Treasure Coast.
Outer rainbands with tropical storm force wind gusts could rotate inland as early as this afternoon from Melbourne to Fort Pierce. The storm is then expected to turn northward and parallel the coast just offshore through Thursday, before moving away to the northeast on Friday. Most of the wind and sea hazards will remain offshore, with the primary inland impact being heavy rain at times.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for offshore waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for coastal counties in those same locations. Residents along the east coast beaches could experience tropical storm force wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop, along with a low risk for water spouts.
Further inland across mainly east-central Florida, heavy rain will come in waves through Thursday with storm totals of 2 to 5 inches possible. As the storm moves north and strengthens, the heavy rain and unsettled seas will move north with it to the First Coast by Wednesday night and Thursday. Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Arthur’s presence should leave the state by Friday, the Fourth of July.
Huffman said there is still uncertainty about just how close this soon-to-be tropical storm will get to the First Coast shoreline before likely accelerating to the northeast.
"Based on what I’m seeing in the data this morning (Tuesday), I’m inclined to believe it will move along the western edge of the hurricane center’s cone," he said.
Nonetheless, the significant wind and sea impacts from the tropical storm will likely stay just offshore, with primary a heavy rain event expected inland to about the US HWY 301 corridor. Further north in southeast Georgia, little or no impact from this system is anticipated at this point.
You can follow Jeff Huffman on Twitter @huffmanweather.
