It's not unusual for the Atlantic waters to be quiet this time of year. And there's little doubt they will be for the first week of July. The National Hurricane Center does not expect tropical storm formation over the next five days.
Dusty Days Ahead
A quiet forecast is no surprise considering how much dust is in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean. The dust comes from sand storms that form over northern African and get lifted out over the ocean by strong winds. The abnormally dry air from the dust is a strong deterrent to tropical cyclone formation in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, which is where most storms form during the busier months of August and September.
Once the dust particles are lifted high enough, they can be transported all the way across the Atlantic to the Caribbean by the trade winds, and even sometimes over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. When this happens, it usually promises several days, if not weeks, of quiet weather in the tropical Atlantic Basin. A decrease in the daily rainfall pattern is also a byproduct of this Saharan Air when it moves over land.
July's Hot Spots
If a storm were to form in July, history gives us a few clues as to where it may form and how it might move. Meteorologist Cyndee O'Quinn highlights areas that are most likely to see storm formation in July, and where they might move.
Trade Winds Strengthen Over Florida
The dusty air might briefly affect the forecast in South Florida at times over the next week, but in general the state will be largely unaffected by this phenomenon. Easterly winds, commonly known as the trade winds, are forecast to strengthen over the coming days, producing a more dominant Atlantic sea breeze. Areas of higher moisture and dry air, in part a product of the dust, will be caught up in these winds, allowing for subtle rises and decreases in overall rain chances across the state. But overall, no major weather systems are on the horizon and typical mid-summer Florida weather should be expected.
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