A narrow pocket of heavy rain is likely over South Florida Friday into Saturday thanks to high levels of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic Ocean. The rain comes after 6 to as much as 12 inches of rain fell in northeastern Miami-Dade and Broward counties early Monday morning, which briefly shut down operations at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport.
Dec 25 @ 545pm - Check out this web story regarding recent flooding in portions of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties back on the 23rd: https://t.co/vSOoLkBSWw #flwx pic.twitter.com/hJEtF9oikb— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) December 25, 2019
3 inches of rain falling in a 1- to 3-hour period of time can cause flash flooding based on guidance available to meteorologists from the National Weather Service. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast through the weekend, which is unlikely to cause widespread flash flooding.
It would take ~3" of rain in either a 1-hour or 3-period period over parts of #Broward and #MiamiDade counties to produce flash flooding. Not expecting widespread 3" amounts, but a few neighborhoods may get there w/ persistent rain bands. Graphics courtesy @weathermodels_ #FLwx pic.twitter.com/j1Hagvisua— Ray Hawthorne (@ray_hawthorne) December 27, 2019
However, focused bands of showers and thunderstorms may result in more than 3 inches of rain falling in a few neighborhoods according to a couple of high-resolution models. It is usually difficult to precisely say where these bands will form, but recent data indicate parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties have the greatest chance of seeing locally heavier rain. If the rain this weekend happens to fall over the same hard-hit areas earlier in the week, urban flash flooding would occur.
The National Weather Service says a lull in the rain is expected Sunday and Monday as a high pressure ridge over the Bahamas extends its influence into South Florida. A cold front is expected to bring another round of showers Tuesday. At this time, the rain associated with the front does not appear heavy or widespread enough to trigger flash flooding concerns.
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