A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, says he supports a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine in theory. But he adds that Ukraine would need to accept further conditions before a deal could be finalized. Now, in the interim, European leaders are discussing ways to discourage future Russian aggression. French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed using France's nuclear capabilities as a deterrent to Russian threats. But what does nuclear deterrence look like in Europe if NATO is unsure if the U.S. will be a committed partner?
Joining us now is Paul Cormarie. He's an analyst for the think tank the RAND Corporation. He focuses on NATO and European defense policy. So, Paul, can France really provide security for the entire European continent? I mean, does it have the resources for this?
PAUL CORMARIE: So it's important to be specific with what Macron actually proposed. It is opening the debate, asking whether or not France can actually fill this role, and asking both at home and also abroad about what that could look like. So there's a whole debate here to be held.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. Macron has been wondering about this for a few years now, kind of throwing it out there. It's like, OK, let's - can we do this kind of thing? But isn't there a much more deeper sense of urgency now, considering what we've heard out of the Trump administration and what they want the U.S.' role in NATO to be?
CORMARIE: There's definitely a sense of urgency because of the fact that European leaders are now welcoming those initiatives. I'm thinking here, of course, of Poland, but also Friedrich Merz of Germany, who's made this grand welcome of more French assertiveness. And it's important to note that France is not part of the Nuclear Planning Group that is inside of NATO. So as a result, the French nuclear role has always been a bit more secluded from those discussions with European partners.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. How concerned are you that any of this - say it does move forward - any of this could lead to an escalation in the number of nuclear weapons in Europe, especially if Europe no longer considers America a reliable ally?
CORMARIE: Well, a lot of European countries have negative attitudes towards the nuclear weapons. There's multiple countries that know that they cannot politically envision any nuclear arsenal as a consequence. Say the United States does what France did in the '60s of leaving the integrated command of NATO, that would certainly affect many European countries who feel like they need foreign troops in their territory in order to reassure themselves from any Russian incursion. That will affect their perception of security on the continent, definitely.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, Paul, I could hear the Trump administration make an argument that, hey, it's good to see Europe taking a lot more responsibility for its own security. What do you say to that?
CORMARIE: Conventionally speaking, yes, that would be great. If it's nuclear arsenal that actually becomes a priority for European countries, that's bad because nuclear winter, radioactivity, all of the adverse effects from the employment of a nuclear bomb - those don't stop at the border or stop at the ocean. They affect everyone. So that will have important implications for U.S. security as well.
MARTÍNEZ: So is all this just maybe an opening debate, or, I mean, is France really going to move its arsenal you think?
CORMARIE: Well, that's the debate.
(LAUGHTER)
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
CORMARIE: And France has made it very clear through all of its presidents that its nuclear weapons was always defending its neighbors. So it's something that's been miscategorized as an opening of its nuclear umbrella since 2020, since his very first keynote speech on the topic. But in reality, that has always been in discussion when it comes to the French role in nuclear weapons in Europe.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Paul Cormarie. He's an analyst with the RAND Corporation. Paul, thanks.
CORMARIE: Thank you so much.
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