Study: Jacksonville Housing Market Slower To Rebound Than Most Big Cities

Jul 15, 2020

A new study finds Jacksonville’s housing market is taking longer to rebound from the sales drop triggered by COVID-19 than those of most other large metropolitan areas across the country.

“My feeling is that that has something to do with the kind of uptick in coronavirus cases in Florida,” said Clever Real Estate data scientist Francesca Ortegren, who was the researcher for the report.

Looking at housing sales data from Redfin, Clever Real Estate examined the lowest point of buyer demand  and available listings across the nation, which was on April 6.  Ortegren said that data was compared to the most recent data from June 15.

Jacksonville saw the sixth biggest drop in demand among the nation’s 50 biggest metropolitan areas, according to Ortegren. Overall, the data show signs of improvement since the spring, but has been slow compared to many other cities' recoveries.

Recent Housing Trends (June 15), Compared with the Jacksonville Metro Area's Housing Market Low Point (April 6):

  • Total Homes Sold: 93 more homes 
  • Pending Sales: 85 more sales
  • Median Listing Price: Listing for $8,775 more
  • Price Drops: 21.25% less 
  • Median Days on Market: 32.3 day increase

Looking at Oretegren’s data snapshot, homes in Jacksonville, on average, are taking significantly longer to sell. On April 6 the median number of days it took to sell a home was 35.7. On June 15 it was 68.68.

Despite that, median sale prices are 6% higher this year than they were in 2019, but overall buyer demand has been trending downward since early April, according to Ortegren.

Listing prices, which are often higher than the final sales price, are also down. Realtor.com reported Jacksonville’s listing prices were off -0.8% in June compared to 2019, which was a record-setting year for home sales in the city.

The number of homes available for sale rose from 3,843 active listings on April 6 to 3,501 on June 15. But that's down from 4,355 active listings from June 17, 2019.  

Oretegren said it’s important to note the downward numbers do not mean the Jacksonville market is in trouble.

“We still have more sales than we did in April, which is you know, a good sign. Listings are selling for more, there's fewer price drops. There's a lot of indications that there still is a strong housing market there,” she said.

Jacksonville remains a strong seller’s market.

“We've seen lower inventory even at the beginning of 2020 than we saw at the same time last year in 2019. So it's possible that we were going to have an inventory shortage, if you want to call it that, this year, regardless of COVID," Oretegren said.

Looking at the overall housing market across the country, the study found the U.S. experienced a sharp decline in sales, followed by a quick turnaround after only a week at the very bottom.

Albany, N.Y., saw the largest increase in demand between April 6 and June 15, followed by Houston and Harrisburg, Pa. Tulsa, Okla., experienced the biggest drop in demand.

Clever Real Estate’s full report, including the methodology used, is available here.  

Bill Bortzfield can be reached at bbortzfield@wjct.org or on Twitter at @BortzInJax.